CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-06-21T03:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Jun 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continued CH
HSS influence.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominately unsettled
to active levels for the first half of day one (22 Jun), decreasing to
quiet to unsettled levels for the latter half of day one and through 
early day two (23 Jun) as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet to active
conditions are expected beginning late on 23 June due to effects from a
possible glancing blow from the CME associated with yesterday's M2
flare. Effects are expected to continue with a chance for isolated minor
storm (NOAA Scale G1) periods on day three (24 Jun).
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Jun 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2013 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2013
 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24
00-03UT 4 1 4 
03-06UT 3 1 3 
06-09UT 3 1 3 
09-12UT 2 1 3 
12-15UT 3 3 3 
15-18UT 2 3 3 
18-21UT 3 4 4 
21-00UT 3 4 4 
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Active conditions (less than G1) are expected on days 2 and 3 (23-24
June).
...

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